home / skills / ncklrs / startup-os-skills / renewal-manager

renewal-manager skill

safe

This skill guides strategic renewal management to maximize retention and expansion by forecasting, pricing, and proactive risk mitigation.

npx playbooks add skill ncklrs/startup-os-skills --skill renewal-manager

Review the files below or copy the command above to add this skill to your agents.

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SKILL.md

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---
name: renewal-manager
description: Expert renewal management guidance for maximizing retention and expansion revenue. Use when building renewal playbooks, forecasting renewal pipeline, structuring multi-year deals, developing pricing strategies, mitigating churn risk, defending against competitive displacement, negotiating contracts, attaching expansion to renewals, or optimizing renewal operations. Covers high-touch and tech-touch renewal motions, early renewal strategies, and save plays.
---

# Renewal Manager

Strategic renewal management expertise for Customer Success teams — from forecasting and pipeline management to negotiation tactics, expansion attachment, and competitive defense.

## Philosophy

Renewals are not administrative events — they are **strategic growth moments**. The renewal is when you convert proven value into predictable revenue and expanded partnerships.

The best renewal managers:
1. **Start early, finish early** — Renewal conversations begin at onboarding
2. **Prove value continuously** — Don't scramble to demonstrate ROI at renewal
3. **Expand before you renew** — Make expansion the natural path
4. **Defend proactively** — Know competitive threats before they surface
5. **Make renewal the easy choice** — Remove friction, maximize value

## How This Skill Works

When invoked, apply the guidelines in `rules/` organized by:

- `forecasting-*` — Pipeline management, renewal forecasting, revenue prediction
- `playbooks-*` — Segment-specific renewal motions and timelines
- `early-renewal-*` — Early renewal strategies and incentives
- `multiyear-*` — Multi-year deal structuring and benefits
- `pricing-*` — Renewal pricing, packaging, and discount strategies
- `risk-*` — Churn risk mitigation and save plays
- `competitive-*` — Competitive displacement defense
- `negotiation-*` — Contract negotiation for renewals
- `expansion-*` — Expansion attached to renewal
- `operations-*` — Renewal automation and efficiency

## Core Frameworks

### The Renewal Timeline

```
ONBOARDING → ADOPTION → VALUE REALIZATION → PRE-RENEWAL → RENEWAL → POST-RENEWAL
     ↓            ↓              ↓                ↓            ↓           ↓
  Plant seeds  Build case    Prove ROI      Negotiate     Close      Expand
  for renewal  for growth    quantifiably    terms        deal       further
```

### Renewal Health Indicators

| Indicator | Healthy | At Risk | Critical |
|-----------|---------|---------|----------|
| **Product Usage** | Growing or stable | Declining | Minimal/none |
| **Stakeholder Engagement** | Multiple active | Single thread | Champion gone |
| **Value Realization** | ROI documented | Unclear value | No outcomes |
| **Support Sentiment** | Positive NPS | Neutral | Detractors |
| **Expansion History** | Has expanded | Flat | Contracted |
| **Competitive Activity** | No signals | Evaluating | Active RFP |

### Renewal Timing by Segment

| Segment | First Touch | Active Negotiation | Close Target |
|---------|-------------|-------------------|--------------|
| **Enterprise** | 180 days out | 120 days out | 60 days out |
| **Mid-Market** | 120 days out | 90 days out | 45 days out |
| **SMB** | 90 days out | 60 days out | 30 days out |
| **Self-Serve** | 60 days out | 30 days out | 14 days out |

### The Renewal Equation

```
        Starting ARR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn
GRR = ────────────────────────────────────────────────── × 100
                      Starting ARR

        Starting ARR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn
NRR = ────────────────────────────────────────────────── × 100
                      Starting ARR

Target Metrics:
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Segment      │  GRR Target  │  NRR Target        │
├───────────────┼──────────────┼────────────────────┤
│  Enterprise   │  95%+        │  115-130%          │
│  Mid-Market   │  90%+        │  105-115%          │
│  SMB          │  85%+        │  100-105%          │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

### Renewal Outcome Categories

| Outcome | Definition | Impact |
|---------|------------|--------|
| **Full Renewal + Expansion** | Renews and grows | NRR boost, ideal |
| **Full Renewal (Flat)** | Renews at same value | GRR maintained |
| **Renewal with Contraction** | Renews at lower value | Revenue loss |
| **Early Renewal** | Renews before term end | Lock-in, less risk |
| **Multi-Year Renewal** | 2-3 year commitment | Predictability |
| **Churn - Voluntary** | Customer chooses to leave | Lost revenue |
| **Churn - Involuntary** | Failed payment, closure | Lost revenue |

### Renewal Risk Categories

| Risk Level | Indicators | Action |
|------------|------------|--------|
| **Green (Healthy)** | High usage, expanding, advocate | Standard renewal motion |
| **Yellow (Monitor)** | Flat usage, single thread, neutral | Increase touchpoints |
| **Orange (At Risk)** | Declining metrics, concerns raised | Risk mitigation playbook |
| **Red (Critical)** | Churn signals, competitor activity | Executive save play |

### The Value Bridge Framework

```
┌───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    VALUE BRIDGE TO RENEWAL                        │
├───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                                    │
│  PAST VALUE          PRESENT STATE         FUTURE VALUE           │
│  ───────────         ─────────────         ────────────           │
│  • Outcomes          • Current usage       • Roadmap value        │
│    delivered         • Health metrics      • Expansion            │
│  • ROI achieved      • Team adoption         opportunity          │
│  • Problems          • Feature depth       • Strategic            │
│    solved                                    alignment            │
│                                                                    │
│           ←──── Use to justify renewal ────→                      │
│                                                                    │
└───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

### Multi-Year Deal Benefits

| Benefit | For Customer | For Vendor |
|---------|--------------|------------|
| **Price Protection** | Lock current rates | Predictable revenue |
| **Discount** | Multi-year discount | Reduced churn risk |
| **Strategic Alignment** | Long-term partnership | Lower CAC payback |
| **Simplified Ops** | Less procurement work | Better forecasting |
| **Investment Justification** | Shows commitment | Higher LTV |

## Key Metrics Reference

| Metric | Definition | Benchmark | Excellence |
|--------|------------|-----------|------------|
| **Gross Revenue Retention (GRR)** | Revenue retained before expansion | 90%+ | 95%+ |
| **Net Revenue Retention (NRR)** | Revenue retained including expansion | 105%+ | 120%+ |
| **Renewal Rate (Logo)** | Customers retained | 85%+ | 92%+ |
| **Renewal Rate (ARR)** | Revenue renewed | 90%+ | 95%+ |
| **Early Renewal Rate** | Renewals before term end | 30%+ | 50%+ |
| **Multi-Year Rate** | Renewals on 2+ year terms | 20%+ | 40%+ |
| **Expansion at Renewal** | Renewals with upsell | 25%+ | 40%+ |
| **On-Time Renewal** | Renewed by end of term | 85%+ | 95%+ |
| **Average Renewal Cycle** | Days to close renewal | <45 days | <30 days |
| **Discount Rate** | Average discount given | <10% | <5% |

## Renewal Playbook by Risk Level

| Risk | 180 Days | 120 Days | 90 Days | 60 Days | 30 Days |
|------|----------|----------|---------|---------|---------|
| **Green** | Health check | Value review | Quote sent | Negotiate | Close |
| **Yellow** | Value reinforce | Exec engagement | Save plan | Intensive | Escalate |
| **Red** | Exec escalation | Save play | Go/no-go | Last effort | Accept/fight |

## Anti-Patterns

- **Renewal as afterthought** — Starting conversations 30 days before expiry
- **Price-only negotiation** — Missing value reinforcement, expansion opportunity
- **Single-threaded renewals** — Only talking to one contact
- **Ignoring early signals** — Not acting on declining health scores
- **Discount first mentality** — Leading with price reduction
- **No competitive intelligence** — Surprised by displacement
- **Manual everything** — No automation for scaled renewals
- **Missing expansion window** — Renewing flat when growth was possible
- **Letting contracts lapse** — Auto-renewals without engagement
- **No multi-year strategy** — Year-to-year mindset limits predictability

Overview

This skill delivers expert renewal management guidance to maximize retention and expansion revenue. It provides practical frameworks, playbooks, and tactics for forecasting, negotiation, risk mitigation, and multi-year deal structuring. Use it to turn renewal moments into predictable growth opportunities.

How this skill works

When invoked, the skill applies structured rules and playbooks across renewal domains: forecasting, segment-specific motions, early-renewal incentives, multi-year deals, pricing, risk mitigation, competitive defense, negotiation, expansion attachment, and operations. It evaluates renewal health indicators, recommends timing and cadence by segment, and generates targeted plays based on risk level. Outputs include tailored playbooks, forecast adjustments, negotiation talking points, and save-play sequences.

When to use it

Building or updating renewal playbooks for enterprise, mid-market, SMB, or self-serve segments
Forecasting renewal pipeline and calculating GRR/NRR scenarios
Designing multi-year offers, early renewal incentives, or pricing strategies
Creating churn mitigation and executive save plays for at-risk accounts
Preparing defenses against competitive displacement during renewal windows

Best practices

Start renewal conversations early—seed during onboarding and adopt a continuous value narrative
Use health indicators (usage, engagement, ROI, sentiment, expansion history) to tier risk and apply appropriate playbooks
Prioritize expansion before renewal; bundle upsell opportunities into renewal negotiations
Avoid leading with discount; anchor on quantified value and future outcomes
Automate low-touch renewals while preserving high-touch executive interventions for at-risk or strategic accounts

Example use cases

Generate a 120-day enterprise renewal playbook with stakeholder mapping and exec escalation triggers
Model NRR impact for proposed multi-year discounts and show trade-offs versus predictable revenue
Design a save play for a red-risk account including timeline, owner, offer, and competitive countermeasures
Create pricing guardrails for renewal negotiations to protect GRR while enabling targeted expansion
Set up an operations plan to automate reminders, quotes, and on-time renewal reporting

FAQ

What timing should I use by segment?

Follow segment guidelines: Enterprise first-touch 180 days out, mid-market 120, SMB 90, self-serve 60; active negotiation and close targets scale accordingly.

How do I measure renewal health?

Combine product usage, stakeholder engagement, value realization, support sentiment, expansion history, and competitive signals into a risk band (Green/Yellow/Orange/Red).