pre-mortem-framework skill

---
name: Pre-Mortem Framework
description: Instead of waiting for a post-mortem after failure, imagine the project has already failed spectacularly and work backward to uncover hidden risks. Use before kicking off any major initiative, product launch, or high-stakes project.
---

# The Pre-Mortem Framework

> "If you do a pre-mortem right, you will not have to do an ugly post-mortem." — Shreyas Doshi

## What It Is

Instead of waiting for a post-mortem after a failure, the team **imagines the project has already failed spectacularly in the future** and works backward to determine why. This uncovers hidden risks that polite corporate culture usually suppresses.

## When To Use

- Before kicking off any **major initiative**
- Prior to **product launch** or **high-stakes project**
- When team has **optimism bias** or is avoiding hard conversations
- To create **psychological safety** for voicing concerns

## Core Principles

### 1. The Prompt
Start by stating: "Imagine it is 6 months from now and this project has failed miserably."

### 2. Categorize Risks

| Type | Description |
|------|-------------|
| 🐯 **Tigers** | Fatal threats that can kill the project |
| 📄 **Paper Tigers** | Perceived but fake threats (fear without substance) |
| 🐘 **Elephants** | Unspoken truths everyone avoids discussing |

### 3. Cross-Team Voting
Have team members vote on the scariest tiger identified by *someone else* — this surfaces risks without political defensiveness.

## How To Apply

```
STEP 1: Set the Scene (5 min)
└── "It's 6 months from now. This project failed spectacularly."
└── "What went wrong?"

STEP 2: Silent Brainstorm (10 min)
└── Each person writes 3-5 failure scenarios
└── No discussion during writing

STEP 3: Share & Categorize (15 min)
└── Read aloud and tag as Tiger/Paper Tiger/Elephant
└── Group similar themes

STEP 4: Vote (5 min)
└── Each person votes on TOP 2 scariest Tigers
└── RULE: You cannot vote for your own

STEP 5: Action Plan (15 min)
└── For each top Tiger: assign owner and mitigation
```

## Common Mistakes

❌ Treating it as a standard risk assessment without the "imagined failure" prompt

❌ Allowing senior leaders to dominate discussion (kills psychological safety)

❌ Not following up on identified risks post-session

## Real-World Example

Shreyas used this at Stripe for major launches to surface "elephants"—like questioning if a PR splash would actually result in sustained user adoption.

---
*Source: Shreyas Doshi, Lenny's Podcast*