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cashflow_forecasting skill

/.agent/skills/cashflow_forecasting

This skill projects tax obligations and cash flow using historical Xero data to help plan reserves and avoid negative cash months.

npx playbooks add skill cleanexpo/ato --skill cashflow_forecasting

Review the files below or copy the command above to add this skill to your agents.

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SKILL.md
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---
name: cashflow-forecasting
description: Project future tax obligations and cash flow requirements based on historical transaction patterns
---

# Cash Flow Forecasting Skill

Projects future tax obligations (BAS, PAYG instalments, SG, FBT, income tax) and cash flow requirements based on historical Xero transaction data. Identifies months with potential negative cash positions and recommends reserve levels.

## When to Use

- Quarterly cash flow planning before BAS periods
- Annual tax obligation budgeting
- Assessing whether PAYG instalment variation is warranted
- Planning for large tax payments (FBT, income tax)
- New client engagement — understanding upcoming obligations
- Scenario modelling (growth, contraction, seasonal adjustment)

## Forecast Methodology

1. **Historical analysis**: Extract 12-24 months of transaction data from Xero
2. **Trend calculation**: Monthly income/expense averages with seasonal adjustment
3. **Tax obligation projection**: Apply current rates to projected income per period
4. **Cash position modelling**: Net cash after all obligations per month
5. **Scenario generation**: Best/worst/expected cases with probability weighting

## Tax Obligation Schedule

| Obligation | Frequency | Calculation |
|------------|-----------|-------------|
| BAS (GST) | Quarterly | Projected revenue × (1/11) net of input credits |
| PAYG Instalment | Quarterly | Prior year tax / 4 or GDP-adjusted rate × income |
| SG | Quarterly | Ordinary time earnings × SG rate |
| FBT | Annual | Grossed-up taxable value × 47% |
| Income Tax | Annual | Projected taxable income × applicable rate |

## Engine Reference

- **Engine**: `lib/analysis/cashflow-forecast-engine.ts`
- **Function**: `generateCashFlowForecast(tenantId, financialYear, options)`
- **Output type**: `CashFlowForecast` — monthly projections, scenarios, key dates
- **Options**: `ForecastOptions` — horizon months, scenario count, growth assumptions

## Disclaimer

Projections are estimates only, not financial advice. ASIC RG 234 applies to forward-looking statements. Professional review recommended.

Overview

This skill projects future tax obligations (BAS, PAYG instalments, SG, FBT, income tax) and maps monthly cash flow requirements using historical transaction patterns. It flags months with potential negative cash positions and recommends reserve levels to cover upcoming liabilities. The output includes scenario-based forecasts and key dates to aid planning and decision-making.

How this skill works

The skill ingests 12–24 months of transaction data and calculates seasonally adjusted income and expense trends. It applies applicable tax rates and rules to projected period income to estimate BAS, PAYG, SG, FBT, and income tax liabilities. Monthly net cash positions are modeled after obligations, and best/worst/expected scenarios are generated with configurable growth and probability assumptions.

When to use it

  • Quarterly cash flow planning ahead of BAS lodgement periods
  • Annual budgeting for expected tax payments
  • Evaluating whether to vary PAYG instalments
  • Preparing for large periodic liabilities like FBT or income tax
  • Onboarding new clients to surface upcoming obligations
  • Scenario modelling for growth, contraction, or seasonality

Best practices

  • Provide 12–24 months of clean transaction history for reliable seasonal adjustments
  • Review and set realistic growth and scenario assumptions before running forecasts
  • Re-run forecasts after major business changes (pricing, staff, contracts)
  • Use recommended reserve levels as guidance, then validate with a financial professional
  • Map forecast outputs to actual bank and tax schedules for reconciliation

Example use cases

  • Generate a 12-month monthly cash flow forecast highlighting BAS quarter shortfalls
  • Estimate PAYG instalments for the coming year and test impact of a 10% revenue increase
  • Model cash impact of a seasonal revenue slump and required reserve to avoid negative months
  • Compare best/worst scenarios to decide on temporary staff hiring
  • Produce a client-ready summary of upcoming tax dates and projected amounts

FAQ

How far into the future can the skill forecast?

Forecast horizon is configurable, commonly 12 months but extendable depending on data quality and assumptions.

Are these projections legally binding tax advice?

No. Projections are estimates for planning purposes and not financial or tax advice; professional review is recommended.